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Place Yer Bets!

posted on September 28th, 2006 by matt

I know the format wars issue is beyond played out, but I’ve come to a startling realization: Sony will win.

How, do you ask? Look at it from this perspective. Has anyone seen the commercials for movies that are available for HD-DVD or Blu-Ray? No doubt you have, but has anyone really thought twice about it? No, and they shouldn’t. And that’s how Sony will win.

People are going to buy PS3’s, there’s no doubt there, but I can’t see many people buying an HD-DVD player anytime soon. Only the early adopter crowd will even bother, and even some of them are questioning switching over so soon. No normal consumer is going to understand or even care about the differences these new devices will bring to viewing movies when compared to regular DVD’s.

Also, all new movies coming out for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are also coming out for DVD. So where’s the need? 1080p isn’t the end-all, be-all of movie resolutions. Trust me, you can live without it.

In one year, there will be millions of Blu-Ray players in the world, cleverly disguised as PS3’s. And as for HD-DVD, no one will have enough motivation to even bother.

So, in the end, Sony wins. Only because no one gave a shit in the first place.


  1. staticneuron said on September 30, 2006:

    I have long agreed with this. The only real reason blu ray is going to be of use in its early life is because of the PS3 games that are comming out on it.

  2. Matt said on October 1, 2006:

    A few people at work started a conversation about this issue. Some stated out that, if a person was so inclined to get into HD, they might side by HD-DVD for name alone. Like, if they want to get a better TV, they get an HDTV. If they want a better movie format, they get HD-DVD. It’s somewhat plausible, but they’re already going farther into the situation. What’s going to get a person to even want to get into HD? The benefits don’t synch up with the amount of money that will go into getting all this stuff. I asked them, will your Grandmother buy one? And boom, that ended their conversation. DVD’s replaced the VHS because everyone, including people that aren’t tech-savvy, bought a DVD player. Blu-Ray has the advantage because, when people are in the mood to buy the next-gen format, the movie studios can see that 10 or whatever million PS3’s are already out there, guaranteeing them financial success.

  3. Christian said on October 1, 2006:

    To play Devil’s Advocate:  A lot of people said the same thing about UMD’s, assuming that the PSP would do gamgbusters.  It would be folly to think the PS3 will have PSP like sales numbers, but if it does sell slower, or at least less initially, its going to be a lot harder to say Blu Ray will clearly dominate, as it gives HD-DVD more time to grow its market.

  4. Matt said on October 1, 2006:

    Yeah, if we look to Sony’s history with proprietary formats, you can see a pretty bleak past. MiniDisc, Betamax, Memory Stick, and UMD. If people were knowledgeable about Sony, they may never get into Blu_Ray, going straight to HD-DVD. It’s definitely a somewhat questionable few years, but people were always waiting for the PS2 to get toppled, either from a more powerful system (Xbox) or better first-party titles (Nintendo). None of those hopes ever came true. People blindly followed Sony in the video game space. And that’s probably why Sony included it in the PS3 to begin with.

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